Money Matters with Wes Moss - June 7, 2009 - Hour 2

Join CERTIFIED FINANCIAL PLANNER™ Wes Moss as he discusses the good things going on in the stock market along with Guest Michael Reiner of Capital Investment Advisors in this second hour of the Money Matters Radio Show for June 7.

WEEKLY TSG:
Weekly TSG: June 7, 2009
Economic Data to look at:
NDR = Ned Davis Research
1. Housing sales have spurted up…6.7% surge in pending home sales…biggest monthly increase since Oct. 2001…but watch for mortgage rates, as the average 30 yr fixed rate has jumped to 5.29%
2. New Manufacturing orders are up with a level consistent with a 2% GDP growth scenario (Barron’s)
3. Job Losses for May were much lower than expected, back to Sept. 2008 (pre-Lehman) levels and have gotten significantly and consistently better since January of 2009. Losses 345,000 vs. 520,000 expected 8.9% to 9.4% only problem may be Birth/Death added 220,000
4. Same store sales are down, but according to NDR research personal income and SAVINGS are up
5. Personal Income jumped 0.5% in April contrary to the -0.2 expected and disposable personal income jumped 1.1% in April, excluding the stimulus disposable income still went up 0.7% (NDR)
6. Savings Rate Soared 1.2% to 5.7% which is the highest level since Feb 1995 (NDR). This is an enormously important statistic that we are tracking.
7. The Capital Markets are working again…as companies sold $65 B of new stock in May and $23 B in June already
8. S&P pushed above 200 Day moving average after spending 358 days below it, the largest slump since 1932, and so did the MSCI world…in fact according to our NDR research a similar measure to the 200 day average (40 week smoothing) 38 of 42 they track have broken to the upside…we also have research that shows that when the markets DO BREAK ABOVE the 200 day moving average (in this scenario the 200 MA is still in decline) it bodes VERY well for the S&P 500 most of the time…in fact during the last 29 Cyclical Bull Markets (NDR-defined bear markets) after 126 trading days (6 months) 79% of the time the market is higher, with a median return of 10.8% (Ned Davis Research June 1st publication Issue#COD200906012)
9. Marketing in general are up again this week:
a. DOW 8763 up 3.09% or 263 pts -0.15% YTD
b. S&P 940 up 2.28% or 21 pts +4.08% YTD
c. NAS 1849 up 4.2% or 75 pts +17.25% YTD
d. Oil up to $68 watch SLV, GLD, and Bonds
10. GM is finally behind us…bankruptcy is chapter 11 not total liquidation like we would see in Chapter 7
11. Massive spread between 2 and 10 yr treasuries – good for banks making money over the short term

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